I’m no Russia expert, but I do know something about tyrants (I’ll get to Trump in a moment), and I doubt Yevgeny Prigozhin has mounted a fatal challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority. I say this because of the roles Putin has asked Prigozhin to play and the dependence of each man on the other.
Why did Putin authoize Prigozhin to lead a private army to attack Ukraine outside the Russ- ian military chain of command in the first place? Presumably, because Putin didn’t trust Russian generals to do the job. And he didn’t want to risk that the generals might turn on him.
Before that, starting in 2014, Prigozhin ran the so-called “Internet Research Agency” — the infamous troll factory that mounted disinformation campaigns.
As you might recall, in 2018, the U.S. Justice Department indicted Prigozhin and 12 of his most senior employees at the Agency for interfering in the 2016 election in favor of Trump, based on evidence from the Mueller investigation.
Putin denied any involvement, of course. And Trump said he “believed” Putin rather than the conclusions of U.S. intelligence.
By the time Putin invaded Ukraine last February, Prigozhin’s mercenary army numbered more than 30,000 — including thousands of prisoners in Russia’s gulag whom Prigozhin promised to free if they risked their lives on the front lines and survived.
When the Ukraine war started to go badly for Russia, Prigozhin blamed it on the incompetence and corruption of the Russian generals. This took the heat off Putin
while putting it on the generals. It’s inconceivable that Prigozhin could have gotten away with his searing criticisms had Putin not given him permission.
Did this embolden Prigozhin to threaten the generals directly, which he did last Friday? Or is Putin still quietly encouraging Prigozhin to counter the generals, as a means of shaking up the Russian military while insulating Putin from responsibility if defeated? Putin’s deal allowing Prigozhin to go unscathed into exile in Belarus and dropping all charges against him suggests some complicity.
We may never know the real story, but it seems doubtful that Prigozhin’s career is over. Nor Putin’s.
Throughout history, tyrannical rulers have created their own private operations outside normal chains of command, run by people like Prigozhin, who are personally loyal.
This gives tyrants flexibility to do what they want without bureaucratic opposition. It protects them against revolt by their subordinates in the chain of command. And it gives them deniability when operations go badly.
Tyrants trust no one — especially not their ,…
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