“Dance with the one that brung you,” goes the old saw. Democrats would be wise to absorb its wisdom. In the last election, pundits expected a “red wave,” with inflation high, Biden unpopular, and the history of midterm elections. Instead, Democrats were handed the best midterm results of any party since the 2002 midterm when Republicans were boosted by the post-9/11 sentiments.
The source of the Democratic surprise isn’t a secret. Voters under 40 – millennials and Gen Z – voted Democratic 59 to 41, while voters over 40 favored Republicans by 10 points. These two generations will constitute 40 percent of the electorate in 2024. Add the big margins provided to Democrats by African Americans, Hispanics, and single women, and you have the core of the Democratic coalition. The ones who brought Dems to the dance.
Like all Americans, these voters are concerned about the economy. Young people, African Americans, and Latinos will be hit the hardest if the Federal Reserve fulfills its effort to drive the economy into a recession costing the jobs of millions of workers.
The passions of these voters are expressed in their movements: Occupy, which challenged the staggering inequality of this society; the climate movement that demands action on this existential threat; the Black Lives Matter movement that sparked the largest interracial, nonviolent demonstrations in our nation’s history; the women’s movements, particularly in the wake of the Dobbs decision that stripped women of their right to control their own bodies; the movements against gun violence that grew out of Parkland and the school shootings that seared a generation; the insurgent union organizing that has been propelled by young workers objecting to dangerous conditions and bad wages.
For years, conservative Democratic pundits and politicians have argued that Democrats were too liberal for America. In 2022, however, exit polls showed abortion ranked second as the prime reason to vote, and those voters went overwhelmingly Democratic. Republicans spent millions charging Democrats with being weak on crime–but only 11 percent of the population named that issue as a prime factor in their decision, and gun policy – gun control – ranked just as high, even though very little money was spent on that. Democrats should learn that protecting the rights of people is not only right morally; it is effective politically.
White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain hailed the young vote on Twitter and claimed it was the result of the president who “kept his promises to younger Americans (with action on climate change, student loans, marijuana reform, etc.).
Democrats, surely benefited from how reactionary and mean-spirited Republicans have become, but it is time to deliver. For example, student debt plagues young people – and no doubt the promise of student debt relief contributed to their support for Democrats. In the upcoming Dec. 6 Georgia Senate runoff, Sen. Raphael Warnock
